An excerpt:
West Virginia is expected to go for Clinton big time -- and the polls show it. Clinton has a 43-point advantage over Obama, 66 percent to 23 percent, according to a survey from the American Research Group released Friday.
Gasp! It's not over! The tide is turning, the tide is turning! Maybe Clinton will win the nomination, after all!
Wait a second... It sure sounds like West Virginia could be the miracle cure to take the Clinton campaign off its life support, but let's stop and think about this.
West Virginia, which votes on May 13, has a total of 37 pledged delegates to be awarded. (And yes, Clinton is expected to win most of them.)
Now, let's look at the ones that remain after that:
Kentucky, which votes on May 20, has a total of 55 delegates.
Oregon, which also votes on May 20, has a total of 62 delegates.
Puerto Rico, which votes on June 1, has a total of 63 delegates.
Montana, which votes on June 3, has a total of 23 delegates.
South Dakota, which also votes on June 3, has a total of 22 delegates.
We already know that Clinton is expected to win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, and that Obama is expected to win Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Let's make one flat assumption that they each win those primaries with 65% of the vote. And frankly, Clinton has had an awful lot of difficulty with achieving that kind of margin, while Obama has easily blown past it. In 2004, Kerry won the primary in Oregon with 79% of the vote and Kucinich came in second with 16%, so I would be wholly unsurprised if Obama achieved a margin of victory larger than 65%. But I'll give everybody an even 65% because I'm not Chuck Todd and it's just speculation.
Now, with 65% of the vote awarded to the respective candidates in their respectively anticipated wins, Clinton still doesn't catch Obama's current total - even though the primaries that she'll win are bigger. She has never been able to recuperate from Obama's long string of wins in February, nor will she.
Based on my calculations, Clinton would need to win a minimum grand total of 83% average win of the popular vote of all combined remaining primaries, just to overtake Obama in the narrowest lead possible. It won't happen. West Virginia will likely be at least indicative of her biggest possible margin of victory and she's expected to win at 66%.
Now, the most important segment of this article is buried elusively at the bottom. The real question of West Virginia is whether it could mean an Obama/Clinton ticket in an effort to gain blue collar voters. I think that this is unlikely, after the contentiousness - brought on by Clinton - of this race. And Obama has other choice, powerhouse endorsements who would appeal greatly to the camp of Clinton voters - like Kathleen Sebelius. Now THAT would be a good ticket.
